Webinar: Weather and Climate of South Central Texas

  • Saturday, October 15, 2022
  • 9:00 AM - 11:30 AM
  • Zoom webinar


  • Event is open to all.


Photo courtesy of NOAA

Photo courtesy of NOAA.

To borrow from Churchill, Texas weather is riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.  From flash drought to flash flood, South Central Texas has a variety of extreme weather.  This weather discussion will try to explain not only the current weather pattern we are in, but also expand on other weather hazards that the area experiences including tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather.

In preparation for this webinar, we asked for input from our membership. As you can imagine, the topics centered on rain, drought, the heat, the "new normal", snow-magedan, etc.  Here's a sampling:

  • My friends and I are scattered around the Llano, Burnet, and Blanco counties. Each of us swears that when the storms show up on radar and it promises rain, the clouds part over our particular spot and the rains skirt around our homes. Are the rains really as spotty as they seem?
  • When I look at the radar and see rain headed my direction, then it begins to dissipate and we miss out. Why does it do that? What causes the scattering of showers in the hill country?
  • What are the main drivers of rainfall in the Hill Country? In this time of drought, where will the best hope for significant rain come from?
  • Will reduction in rainfall over time cause significant change in vegetation?
  • Are these severe winters going to be the new normal?
  • Will the summers get so hot and dry that songbirds will nest further North?
  • A state meteorologist in 1927 famously described Texas climate by saying, "Texas is a land of perennial drought, broken by the occasional devastating flood." In the 95 years since that quote, how has his assessment played out?
  • Are there any projections for how long this drought will last? and how severe?
    What do you expect for our Central Texas weather for the next 5 to 10 years? Can we break out of this drought?
  • Is the drought of the 1950s still considered to be the "drought of record"? In evaluating the severity of drought how does the excessive heat figure in along with the lack of rainfall?
  • What is the impact of climate change on the weather in our region?
  • How do you come up with your predictions? Is there an assessment of how accurate the predictions turn out to be?
  • What does 50% chance of rain mean? Rain in 50% of the viewing area or a 50% chance you will get any rain in the viewing area? I've heard talk of seeding clouds to produce more chances for rain. Is that environmentally sound?
  • What impact do solar winds and solar cycles have on our weather? and why?

The link to the Zoom meeting will be sent in the event reminder you will receive a few days before the event.

Bio for Paul Yura

Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX
Paul Yura was born and raised in Austin, went to school at the University of Texas before transferring to the University of Oklahoma where he received his Bachelor of Science degree in meteorology and attended graduate school.  While going to school, he worked summers at the Austin Weather Service Office and the Norman Oklahoma NWS office.  After graduation, Paul began his full time career with the National Weather Service in Brownsville TX as a forecaster. Paul transferred to the NWS office in Charleston SC in 2002 where he was a Lead forecaster and then Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM).  In 2008 Paul accepted the Warning Coordination Meteorologist position at the Austin-San Antonio weather office. As WCM, his primary job is to be the liaison between the National Weather Service and local media, citizens, county, state, and federal agencies as well as conduct storm damage surveys and community outreach.

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